Will Kevin Warsh say “Bond Market”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Bond Market” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 28, 2026.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Bond Market
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Yeah. Let me speak to the history. What bond market prices do prospectively, I want to let them do—I want to let them tell me…
…economy—output is solid. Capex and productivity are strong— labor markets—solid, steady. The bond market—the Treasury market—it seems to be saying that as well. If I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Bond Market |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Bond Market”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Bond Market” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Bond Market” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Bond Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/bond-market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=bond%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP