# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-09-30 · 27 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP30 · as_of 2026-10-24T14:22:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-30 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP30 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	46	35	0.76	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.73	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	14	12	0.86	nYYYYYnYYY	5	0	0.72	hist	yes
Biden	biden	63	43	0.68	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.66	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	44	24	0.55	YYnYYnYYYY	5	3	0.61	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	40	26	0.65	nnYYYYnnYY	5	3	0.6	hist	yes
Election	election	34	18	0.53	nYnYYYYYYY	5	1	0.6	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	32	16	0.5	YnYYnYYYYY	5	3	0.59	hist	no
Social Security	social security	3	2	0.67	nYY	5	2	0.56	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	42	24	0.57	YYYnYYYYYY	5	3	0.56	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	17	10	0.59	YYYnYnYnYn	5	2	0.49	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	23	9	0.39	nnnYYnnYYn	5	3	0.47	hist	yes
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	19	6	0.32	YnnnYYnnYY	5	1	0.47	hist	yes
Border	border	17	8	0.47	nnnYnnnYYn	5	2	0.44	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	33	19	0.58	nnnYnnYnnY	5	0	0.43	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	20	13	0.65	YYYYnnYnnn	5	2	0.42	hist	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	10	4	0.4	nYnYnYnnnY	5	4	0.42	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	12	3	0.25	nYnYnnnnnY	5	0	0.41	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	28	12	0.43	YnnYYnnnnn	5	3	0.37	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	33	11	0.33	nnnYYnYnnn	5	1	0.33	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	15	3	0.2	nnnnnYnnnY	5	1	0.32	hist	no
ICE	ice	4	0	0	nnnn	5	1	0.28	hist	no
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	2	0	0	nn	5	2	0.28	hist	yes
America First	america first	42	6	0.14	nnYnnnnnnY	5	0	0.26	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	50	9	0.18	nYnYnnnnnY	5	3	0.25	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	29	1	0.03	nnnnnnnnnY	5	0	0.23	hist	yes
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	11	1	0.09	nYnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.19	hist	no
Talarico	talarico	0	0			5	0	0.44	prior	yes