# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-10-15 · 30 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT15 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-15 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT15 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Monroe, Michigan originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	51	40	0.78	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.8	hist	yes
Biden	biden	68	48	0.71	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.76	hist	no
Election	election	39	23	0.59	YYYYYYYYYY	5	1	0.72	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	18	15	0.83	YYnYYYYYnY	5	0	0.71	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	28	14	0.5	nnYYnYYYYY	5	3	0.65	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	45	30	0.67	YnnYYYYYYn	5	3	0.64	hist	no
Social Security	social security	7	5	0.71	nYYYYnY	5	2	0.63	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	14	8	0.57	nYnnnYYYYY	5	4	0.63	hist	no
Border	border	19	10	0.53	nYnnnYYnYY	5	2	0.56	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	47	27	0.57	YYYYYnYYnY	5	3	0.55	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	25	17	0.68	nYnnnYYYnY	5	2	0.54	hist	no
Steel	steel	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	5	0	0.54	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	49	26	0.53	nYYYYnnYnY	5	3	0.52	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	37	18	0.49	YYYYYnYYnn	5	3	0.49	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	23	8	0.35	YYnnYYYYnn	5	1	0.47	hist	yes
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	6	2	0.33	nnYnnY	5	2	0.4	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	37	20	0.54	nnYnnYnnnY	5	0	0.39	hist	no
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	1	0	0	n	5	0	0.39	hist	no
Ford / General Motors / GM	ford|general motor|gm	0	0			5	0	0.39	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	16	4	0.25	nnnnnYnYnn	5	0	0.36	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	33	13	0.39	nnnnnnnnYn	5	3	0.33	hist	no
Small Business	small business	8	3	0.38	YnYnYnnn	5	1	0.33	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	33	3	0.09	nnnnnYYYnn	5	0	0.33	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	22	10	0.45	nYnYnnnnnn	5	2	0.32	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	37	12	0.32	YnYnnnnnnY	5	1	0.32	hist	no
America First	america first	47	7	0.15	nnnnYnnnnY	5	0	0.28	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	55	9	0.16	nnnnYnnnnn	5	3	0.19	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	15	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.15	hist	no
Auto Worker / Autoworker	auto worker|autoworker	0	0			5	2	0.47	prior	yes
Electric Vehicle / EV	electric vehicle|ev	0	0			5	0	0.47	prior	no