Will JD Vance say “Blockade”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Blockade” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Blockade
- Probability
- 50% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…them stop shooting commercial ships, are we talking about an indefinite naval blockade? Isn't that costly and hampers US readiness elsewhere? And how will the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…far, they are honoring their end of the commitment. And on the blockade, CENTCOM has allowed north of a dozen ships to go through our…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Blockade”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Blockade” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Blockade” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Blockade’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/blockade (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=blockade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP