Will JD Vance say “Gas / Gasoline”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Gas / Gasoline” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 7, 2026 (80%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 34¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Gas / Gasoline
- Probability
- 65% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we had for a very long time, the Biden administration, draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve purely for the purpose of lowering gas and oil costs.
…Oil prices are down nearly at their level from the pre-war conflict. Gas prices dropped below $4 a gallon today for the first time since…
…very aware, that because of what's going on in the Middle East, gas prices have gone up, and a lot of Americans are struggling because…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| May 19, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Gas / Gasoline | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Gas / Gasoline”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Gas / Gasoline” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 7, 2026 (80%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Gas / Gasoline” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Gas / Gasoline’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/gas-or-gasoline (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=gas%20%2F%20gasoline · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP