# JD Vance (jd-vance) · briefing 2026-05-19 · 27 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY19 · as_of 2026-10-25T07:22:46Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-19 · tn/th last 2 briefing transcripts 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY19 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of White House Press Briefing , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	25	19	0.76	YnnYnYYYYY	2	2	0.63	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	20	15	0.75	YnYYYYYnYY	2	2	0.63	hist	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	14	10	0.71	nnYnYYnYYY	2	1	0.6	hist	no
California	california	10	7	0.7	YYYYnnnYYY	2	1	0.59	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	20	13	0.65	YnnYYYYnYY	2	1	0.58	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	18	10	0.56	YYnYnYYYYY	2	1	0.54	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.52	hist	yes
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	3	2	0.67	YnY	2	0	0.51	hist	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	3	2	0.67	YnY	2	0	0.51	hist	yes
Oil	oil	6	3	0.5	nnYYnY	2	0	0.48	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	2	0	0.46	hist	yes
Autism / Autistic	autism|autistic	2	1	0.5	nY	2	0	0.46	hist	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	2	1	0.5	nY	2	1	0.46	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	10	4	0.4	nnnYYYYnnn	2	1	0.41	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	6	2	0.33	nnnYnY	2	0	0.4	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.39	hist	yes
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	3	1	0.33	Ynn	2	1	0.38	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	18	7	0.39	YnYYnnnnYn	2	1	0.37	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	18	6	0.33	nnYnYnnnYn	2	1	0.35	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	25	8	0.32	nnYnYnYnnn	2	0	0.32	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	4	0	0	nnnn	2	0	0.28	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	16	2	0.12	Ynnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.2	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	11	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.19	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	26	3	0.12	nYnnnnnnnn	2	1	0.17	hist	yes
Blockade	blockade	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no
Ebola	ebola	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no
Hantavirus	hantavirus	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no