# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-12-22 (settled) · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC22 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:17:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-22 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC22 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 8am ET December 15th and before Dec 22, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	27	17	0.63	YYYYYYnYYn	0.79	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	33	21	0.64	YYYnnYYnYY	0.75	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	26	16	0.62	YnYYYYYYYY	0.75	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	43	24	0.56	YYnYYnnYYY	0.71	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	8	6	0.75	YYnYnYYY	0.7	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	20	12	0.6	nnnYYnYYYY	0.7	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	9	6	0.67	YYYYnYYnn	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	16	10	0.62	YYnYYnYYnY	0.66	0	0	yes	1
Mental Institution	mental institution	6	5	0.83	YnYYYY	0.65	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	8	4	0.5	YnnYYnYn	0.65	0	0	no	1
Christmas	christma	7	5	0.71	YYYYnnY	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Beef	beef	9	5	0.56	nYnnYYYYn	0.62	0	0	no	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.6	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	15	9	0.6	nYYnnYYnYY	0.6	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	32	23	0.72	YYYnnnYYYY	0.59	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	14	6	0.43	YYnnYnnnYY	0.56	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	34	17	0.5	nnYYYYnnYY	0.52	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	21	7	0.33	nnnnnYnYnn	0.51	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	8	4	0.5	nYYYnnnY	0.48	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	24	11	0.46	nnnYYnYnnn	0.48	0	0	no	1
Argentina	argentina	6	2	0.33	nnnnYY	0.43	0	0	no	1
Maduro	maduro	30	6	0.2	nYnnnnnnnn	0.41	0	0	yes	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	13	4	0.31	YnYYnnnnnn	0.37	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	215	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.34	0	0	no	1
Email	email	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.29	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	40	8	0.2	nnnnnnYnnn	0.28	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	50	8	0.16	nnnnnnnnnn	0.28	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	16	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	0.16	0	0	yes	1