# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-12-15 (settled) · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC15 · as_of 2026-10-24T04:04:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-15 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC15 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 10am ET December 8th and before Dec 15, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	25	16	0.64	YnYYYYYYnY	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	30	18	0.6	YYYYYYnnYn	0.74	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	25	15	0.6	YYnYYYYYYY	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	41	22	0.54	nYYYnYYnnY	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	8	6	0.75	YYYYnYYn	0.67	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	7	5	0.71	YYnYnYY	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	19	11	0.58	YnnnYYnYYY	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	14	8	0.57	YYYYnYYnYn	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Mental Institution	mental institution	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	30	21	0.7	YYYYYnnnYY	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Beef	beef	8	4	0.5	nYnnYYYn	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	14	8	0.57	YnYYnnYYnY	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	7	3	0.43	nYYYnnn	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	20	7	0.35	nnnnnnYnYn	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	23	11	0.48	nnnnYYnYnn	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Windmill	windmill	6	3	0.5	YnnYYn	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	12	4	0.33	nYYYnnYnnn	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	33	16	0.48	YnnYYYYnnY	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	23	5	0.22	nnnnnnnnnn	0.41	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	11	4	0.36	nnYnYYnnnn	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	207	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Argentina	argentina	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Email	email	4	0	0	nnnn	0.33	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	45	8	0.18	nnnnnnnnnn	0.29	hist	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	37	8	0.22	nnnnnnnnnY	0.22	hist	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	15	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	0	0	no	1
Christmas	christma	1	1	1	Y	0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1