# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-01-30 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN30 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:06:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-30 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Cabinet Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	163	119	0.73	YYYnYYnnYn	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	113	77	0.68	YYYYnnYnnY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	71	48	0.68	YYnYYYYnYY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Iran	iran	40	27	0.68	YYYnnYYYYn	1	1	0.61	hist	no
Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator	paid agitator|professional agitator	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.57	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	95	63	0.66	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	129	74	0.57	YYYYnYnnYn	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Housing	housing	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.55	hist	yes
Highest Inflation	highest inflation	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
China	china	105	68	0.65	YYYnYYnnnY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	45	27	0.6	nnYYnnYnYn	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	31	17	0.55	YYnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	13	8	0.62	YnYnYYnYYY	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
Scholarship	scholarship	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.48	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	90	38	0.42	YnnYnnnnnY	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Golden Age / Golden Dome	golden age|golden dome	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	0	0.46	hist	no
Woke / DEI	dei|woke	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Greenland / Iceland	greenland|iceland	0	0			1	1	0.45	hist	no
Credit	credit	9	3	0.33	nYnnYnnnY	1	1	0.39	hist	yes
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	14	6	0.43	YYYnYYYnnn	1	1	0.36	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	57	20	0.35	nnnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.35	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	9	4	0.44	YnYYnnYnn	1	0	0.33	hist	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	23	9	0.39	nnnnYnnnnn	1	1	0.32	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	43	18	0.42	nnYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.31	hist	yes
Walz	walz	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	1	0	0.31	hist	no
Too Late	too late	13	3	0.23	nYYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.26	hist	yes
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	249	24	0.1	YYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.06	hist	no
Teacher	teacher	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no