# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2026-04-12 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12 · as_of 2026-10-24T12:03:24Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-12 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Democrat	democrat	1	117	79	0.68	YYnYYYnnnY	1	1	0.7	no
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	1	60	42	0.7	YYYYYnYYnY	1	0	0.67	no
Biden	biden	1	223	154	0.69	YnYnYYnYYn	1	1	0.64	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	127	82	0.65	YYnYYnnnYY	1	1	0.62	yes
China	china	1	140	89	0.64	nnnYYYYnnn	1	1	0.58	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	21	14	0.67	nYYnYYYnYY	1	1	0.57	yes
Oil	oil	1	63	32	0.51	YYYnnYYYYY	1	1	0.56	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	23	15	0.65	nnYnYnYYYn	1	1	0.54	yes
NATO	nato	1	60	30	0.5	YnYnnYnnnY	1	1	0.54	yes
Iran (5+ times)	iran#5	5	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.53	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	10	7	0.7	YnYYnYYYnY	1	0	0.51	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	85	46	0.54	YYYYnnnYnn	1	1	0.51	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	56	30	0.54	nYnnnnnYYY	1	1	0.5	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	19	12	0.63	YYnnYYnYYY	1	1	0.49	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	69	38	0.55	YnnnYYYnnn	1	1	0.48	yes
NASA / Moon	moon|nasa	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	1	0.47	no
Hottest	hottest	1	194	101	0.52	nnYnnYYYnY	1	1	0.47	no
Peace	peace	1	32	19	0.59	YYnYnYnnnn	1	1	0.42	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	29	10	0.34	nnYYnYYYnn	1	0	0.37	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	35	9	0.26	YnnnYnnYnY	1	0	0.35	no
Supreme Leader	supreme leader	1	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.31	no
America First	america first	1	35	12	0.34	nnnnnnnYnn	1	0	0.29	no
Epstein	epstein	1	101	24	0.24	nYYnnnYnnn	1	0	0.28	no
Uranium	uranium	1	6	0	0	nnnnnn	1	0	0.28	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	332	34	0.1	nnYYYnnnnn	1	0	0.11	no