# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-09-30 · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP30 · as_of 2026-10-24T22:03:56Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-30 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement on September 30th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	58	48	0.83	YYnYYYYYYY	0.85	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	33	23	0.7	nnYYYYnYYY	0.65	hist	no
Europe / European	europe|european	6	5	0.83	nYYYYY	0.63	hist	no
Putin	putin	36	26	0.72	YYYYYYYYnn	0.62	hist	no
Iran	iran	22	13	0.59	YnYYYnYYYY	0.58	hist	no
October 7th	october 7th	3	3	1	YYY	0.54	hist	no
Hamas	hama	15	8	0.53	nnYnYnYnYY	0.54	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	9	6	0.67	nYnYYnYYY	0.53	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	8	4	0.5	nYYYYnnn	0.51	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	12	6	0.5	nYYYnnYnnn	0.5	hist	yes
Antifa	antifa	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	0.5	hist	no
Russia	russia	29	17	0.59	YYnnnYYYnn	0.49	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	19	12	0.63	nnYYnYnYnn	0.48	hist	no
NATO	nato	27	12	0.44	YYYYnYYYnn	0.48	hist	no
ICE	ice	7	3	0.43	YnnYYnn	0.38	hist	no
Comey	comey	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.37	hist	no
Autopen	autopen	19	8	0.42	nnnYYnnnnn	0.35	hist	no
Chicago	chicago	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.35	hist	yes
TikTok	tiktok	19	5	0.26	nnYYnnnnnn	0.34	hist	no
Houthi	houthi	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.34	hist	no
Portland	portland	2	0	0	nn	0.33	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	3	0	0	nnn	0.32	hist	yes
Palestine	palestine	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.31	hist	no
Oil	oil	15	4	0.27	nYnnnnYYnn	0.26	hist	no
Sanction	sanction	19	3	0.16	nnnnnnYnnn	0.17	hist	no
Terror	terror	0	0			0.4	prior	no