# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-09-02 · 33 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP02 · as_of 2026-10-25T07:51:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-02 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP02 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Announcement in the Oval Office originally scheduled for 2:00 pm ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	47	38	0.81	YYYYYYYnYY	0.8	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	15	11	0.73	YYYYnnYYnY	0.56	hist	no
Tax	tax	6	5	0.83	nYYYYY	0.55	hist	no
Border	border	24	16	0.67	nnnYYnYnYY	0.52	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.51	hist	yes
Putin	putin	28	20	0.71	YnnYnnYnYY	0.51	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	18	11	0.61	nnYYnYnYnY	0.51	hist	no
Russia	russia	25	15	0.6	nYnnYYnnnY	0.47	hist	yes
FIFA / World Cup	fifa|world cup	0	0			0.45	hist	yes
Maduro / Venezuela	maduro|venezuela	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.43	hist	yes
Autopen	autopen	16	8	0.5	YYYnnnYYnn	0.4	hist	no
Gaza / Israel	gaza|israel	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.39	hist	no
Emergency	emergency	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Newsom	newsom	0	0			0.36	hist	yes
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto|cryptocurrency	3	0	0	nnn	0.35	hist	no
Drug	drug	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.34	hist	yes
Hoax	hoax	6	2	0.33	YnnYnn	0.33	hist	no
Epstein / Maxwell	epstein|maxwell	0	0			0.31	hist	no
Cancer	cancer	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Chicago	chicago	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Department of Defense	department of defense	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Department of War	department of war	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Executive Order	executive order	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Hand/Hands	hand	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Health / Healthy	health|healthy	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Housing	housing	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Mail-In Voting	mail in voting	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Resign	resign	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Rudy / Giuliani	giuliani|rudy	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Stroke	stroke	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Washington DC / Nation's Capital	nation's capital|washington dc	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Window	window	0	0			0.37	prior	yes