# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-22 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT22 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:42:39Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-22 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Rose Garden Club Lunch on October 21st, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	75	62	0.83	YYYYYYYYYn	0.81	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	42	34	0.81	nnYYYYYYYY	0.78	hist	yes
China	china	42	35	0.83	YYYnYYYnYY	0.71	hist	yes
Election	election	17	13	0.76	YYYnYYYnYY	0.69	hist	yes
Middle East	middle east	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	31	19	0.61	YYYnnYnnnY	0.6	hist	yes
Border	border	39	26	0.67	YYYYYnYYnn	0.59	hist	yes
Drug	drug	9	6	0.67	nYYnYYYYn	0.56	hist	no
Economy	economy	11	7	0.64	YnnnYYnYYY	0.56	hist	yes
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	6	3	0.5	nYnnYY	0.53	hist	no
India	india	10	8	0.8	YnYYYYYYYn	0.52	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	6	5	0.83	YYYYYn	0.48	hist	yes
Dead Country	dead country	6	3	0.5	YnYnnY	0.46	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.45	hist	yes
Radical	radical	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.44	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	24	11	0.46	nYnnnnnnnn	0.42	hist	yes
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	9	4	0.44	nYnnYYnYn	0.4	hist	no
National Guard	national guard	17	7	0.41	nnYYnYnnnn	0.38	hist	yes
Gaza / Hamas	gaza|hama	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
New York	new york	5	2	0.4	YnYnn	0.32	hist	yes
Schumer	schumer	9	3	0.33	nYnYYnnnn	0.32	hist	yes
Nobel	nobel	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.25	hist	no
ICE	ice	12	3	0.25	nYYnnnnnnn	0.21	hist	no
999	999	0	0			0.41	prior	no