Will Donald Trump say “Gaza / Hamas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Gaza / Hamas” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Gaza / Hamas
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…many, many, many more things. And we got all of the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before…
And we got all 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before that. We got them all returned. Got…
…were raging. Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. We got all the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before…
…when I addressed the great leaders in this hall, the war in Gaza was still raging brutally. The hostages were still deep in Hamas tunnels…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | Gaza / Hamas |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Gaza / Hamas | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Gaza / Hamas | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Gaza / Hamas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Gaza / Hamas” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 5, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gaza / Hamas” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gaza / Hamas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gaza-or-hama (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gaza%20%2F%20hama · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP