# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-21 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT21 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:28:49Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-21 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Bilateral meeting with Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia on October 20th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	73	61	0.84	YnYYYYYYYY	0.84	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	40	32	0.8	YYnnYYYYYY	0.77	hist	yes
China	china	41	34	0.83	YYYYnYYYnY	0.7	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	20	15	0.75	YYYYYnYnYY	0.67	hist	no
Border	border	37	26	0.7	YYYYYYYnYY	0.66	hist	no
Drug	drug	8	6	0.75	nYYnYYYY	0.63	hist	no
Middle East	middle east	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	0.61	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	30	18	0.6	YYYYnnYnnn	0.58	hist	yes
Hamas	hama	22	12	0.55	nYYnnYYYnY	0.53	hist	yes
Submarine	submarine	0	0			0.5	hist	yes
Russia	russia	33	19	0.58	nYYYnnnnYY	0.49	hist	yes
Putin	putin	41	27	0.66	YYYnnnYnnn	0.48	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	22	11	0.5	YYnYnnnnnn	0.47	hist	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	5	2	0.4	nYnnY	0.46	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	24	14	0.58	YnYnnnnYnY	0.45	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	15	7	0.47	nnnnYYnYnn	0.44	hist	no
Maduro / Venezuela	maduro|venezuela	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.44	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	7	3	0.43	nYnYYnn	0.39	hist	no
New York	new york	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.38	hist	no
Dead Country	dead country	5	2	0.4	YnYnn	0.38	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	19	4	0.21	nYYnnnYnnn	0.34	hist	no
Aluminum	aluminum	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	0.34	hist	no
ICE	ice	11	3	0.27	nnYYnnnnnn	0.24	hist	no
Kangaroo	kangaroo	0	0			0.41	prior	no