Will Donald Trump say “Lunatic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lunatic” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Lunatic
- Probability
- 53% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…nominated the most extreme anti-American radicals ever to seek office, including far-left lunatic. I mean, I couldn't believe that she got the nomination. It was…
…Look, that's what's going to happen if you put the radical left lunatics in here like the people that these two great people are running…
…I'm with the law enforcement. But Darlene's running against a radical left lunatic named Annie Andrews, who would be the most extreme and crazy left-wing…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lunatic |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Lunatic |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Lunatic | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Lunatic | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Lunatic | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Lunatic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lunatic” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Lunatic” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Lunatic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/lunatic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=lunatic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP