# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-17 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT17 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:03:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-17 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT17 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement on October 16th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	71	59	0.83	YYYnYYYYYY	0.82	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	39	31	0.79	YYYnnYYYYY	0.75	hist	yes
China	china	39	33	0.85	nYYYYYnYYY	0.73	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	28	18	0.64	YYYYYYnnYn	0.65	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	18	13	0.72	YYYYYYYnYn	0.63	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.57	hist	no
Chicago	chicago	8	4	0.5	YnnnnYYY	0.57	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	11	8	0.73	YYYnYnYYYn	0.55	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	17	10	0.59	YYYYnYnYnn	0.55	hist	no
Water	water	8	4	0.5	YnnYnnYY	0.54	hist	no
Dead Country	dead country	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.53	hist	no
National Guard	national guard	13	7	0.54	YYnnnnYYnY	0.53	hist	no
Economy	economy	10	6	0.6	YYnnnYYnYY	0.52	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	6	5	0.83	YYYYYn	0.46	hist	no
Memphis	memphis	2	1	0.5	nY	0.44	hist	no
Lunatic	lunatic	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.43	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	6	3	0.5	nYnYYn	0.43	hist	no
Terrorist	terrorist	9	4	0.44	YnYYnYnnn	0.34	hist	no
Woke	woke	23	4	0.17	nYnnYnYnnn	0.32	hist	no
TikTok	tiktok	24	7	0.29	nnnnnnnnYn	0.29	hist	no
Nobel	nobel	4	0	0	nnnn	0.29	hist	no
ICE	ice	10	3	0.3	YnnYYnnnnn	0.27	hist	no
Bitcoin / Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	141	8	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	0.11	hist	no
Embryo	embryo	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Holistic	holistic	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Reproductive	reproductive	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Soybean / Soy Bean	soy bean|soybean	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Sperm	sperm	0	0			0.42	prior	no