Will Donald Trump say “Medal of Honor”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Medal of Honor” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 15, 2025 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 3 later appearances without a transcript yet (since Oct 26, 2026) are not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Medal of Honor
- Probability
- 52% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Medal of Honor |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Medal of Honor |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Medal of Honor | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Medal of Honor”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Medal of Honor” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 15, 2025 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Medal of Honor” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Medal of Honor’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/medal-of-honor (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=medal%20of%20honor · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP