# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-06-15 · 29 words in 30 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:28:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-06-15 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of U.S. Army 250th Anniversary Speech, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	ev	res
Biden	biden	27	22	0.81	YYYYYYYYYY	0.77	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
China	china	21	19	0.9	YYYYYYYYYY	0.75	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Border	border	14	11	0.79	YYnnYYYYYn	0.71	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.66	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Golden Dome	golden dome	3	3	1	YYY	0.65	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Nuclear	nuclear	13	10	0.77	nYnYYYYYYY	0.65	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Veterans	veteran	2	2	1	YY	0.63	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Russia	russia	14	11	0.79	nYnYYYYYYn	0.62	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Newscum	newscum	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Inflation	inflation	6	4	0.67	YnnYYY	0.59	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Trillion	trillion	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
LA / Los Angeles	la|los angele	1	1	1	Y	0.56	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Patriot	patriot	1	1	1	Y	0.56	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	yes
America First	america first	8	6	0.75	YYnYYYYn	0.56	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Strongest	strongest	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Transgender	transgender	8	5	0.62	YYYnYnYn	0.54	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Israel	israel	28	16	0.57	nnnnnnnYnY	0.5	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Birthday	birthday	1	0	0	n	0.46	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
January 6	january 6	3	0	0	nnn	0.44	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
National security	national security	2	0	0	nn	0.42	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
NATO	nato	11	2	0.18	nnnnYYnnnn	0.37	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
NATO	nato	11	2	0.18	nnnnYYnnnn	0.37	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	yes
Woke	woke	13	1	0.08	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.26	hist	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Fag day	fag day	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Frankly	frankly	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
German	german	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Medal of Honor	medal of honor	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	yes
National Guard	national guard	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Patton	patton	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no
Riot	riot	0	0			0.51	prior	k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31	no