# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · tv_episode 2025-04-30 · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25APR30 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-cabinet-meeting-on-april-30 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:52:46Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-04-30 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25APR30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the CUOMO Town Hall: The First 100 Days, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-cabinet-meeting-on-april-30 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Putin	putin	1	K	19	16	0.84	YYYYnYYYYY	0.63	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	K	10	9	0.9	YYYYYYYYnY	0.6	hist	yes
Hell 3+ times	hell#3	3	P	8	6	0.75	YYnYnYYY	0.57	hist	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	1	K	10	7	0.7	YYYYnnYYnY	0.53	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	1	K	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	no
Border	border	1	K	4	4	1	YYYY	0.51	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	1	K	7	5	0.71	YYnYYnY	0.5	hist	yes
China 7+ times	china#7	7	P	4	4	1	YYYY	0.48	hist	yes
Job 15+ times	job#15	15	P	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Make a Deal	make a deal	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Egg	egg	1	P	7	4	0.57	nnYYnYY	0.47	hist	no
Canada	canada	1	K	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	0.46	hist	no
Joe / Biden 5+ times	biden|joe#5	5	P	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.45	hist	yes
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	1	K	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.41	hist	no
Xi / Jinping	jinping|xi	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
Obama	obama	1	P	4	2	0.5	YYnn	0.36	hist	no
Gold Card	gold card	1	K	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.36	hist	no
Zelenskyy	zelenskyy	1	KP	9	3	0.33	YYnnnYnnn	0.35	hist	no
Mark / Carney	carney|mark	1	P	0	0			0.35	hist	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times	billion|million|trillion#15	15	P	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	yes
Judge	judge	1	P	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.31	hist	yes
Gold Card / Trump Card	gold card|trump card	1	P	0	0			0.31	hist	no
DOGE	doge	1	P	8	1	0.12	nnnYnnnn	0.3	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	84	3	0.04	nnnnnnnYnn	0.06	hist	no
CNN	cnn	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Jalen / Hurts	hurt|jalen	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Saquon / Barkley	barkley|saquon	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Shedeur / Sanders	sander|shedeur	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Beautiful Bill	beautiful bill	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Friend of Mine	friend of mine	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Tijuana	tijuana	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no