Will Donald Trump say “Gold Card”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gold Card” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Gold Card
- Probability
- 51% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Gold Card |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Gold Card |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Gold Card | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Gold Card | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Gold Card | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Gold Card | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Gold Card”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gold Card” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 19, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gold Card” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gold Card’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gold-card (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gold%20card · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP