Will Donald Trump say “Khamenei”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Khamenei” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2025 (17%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Khamenei
- Probability
- 46% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Khamenei |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Khamenei | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Khamenei |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Khamenei | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Khamenei | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Khamenei | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Khamenei”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Khamenei” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2025 (17%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Khamenei” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Khamenei’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/khamenei (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=khamenei · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP