Will Jerome Powell say “Layoff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Layoff” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Aug 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Layoff
- Probability
- 23% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has moved up recently and is…
Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. In our SEP, the median projection of…
…though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators, including openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, show little change in recent months. Inflation…
…data for October and November are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households’ perceptions of job availability…
…official employment data for September are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households’ perceptions of job availability…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Layoff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Layoff” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Aug 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Layoff” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Layoff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/layoff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=layoff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP