Will Jerome Powell say “Cut”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Cut” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Cut
- Probability
- 50% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…more neutral stance so that the hike is as likely as a cut—that number has increased over the intermeeting period. And it’s easy to see…
…was actually some movement toward—a meaningful amount of movement toward, toward fewer cuts by people. So four or five people went from two to one,…
…about this was that after this meeting, after the three recent rate cuts, we’re well positioned to address the risks that we face on both…
…was happening in the middle of the year. And then we resumed cuts in September. And we’ve cut now three—we’ve now cut a total of…
…ought to be at neutral, because one of them is calling for you to hike, and one of them is calling for you to cut.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Cut”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Cut” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Cut” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Cut’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/cut (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=cut · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP