Will Jerome Powell say “Political”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Political” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 24, 2025.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)
Last 10
0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=political

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Political

Probability
– · n=1 (too little history)
Settled
0/1 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, April 29, 2026 · Apr 29, 2026In transcript

…the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors. And I want to note here this has nothing whatever to…

CHRIS RUGABERreporterFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 5:10In transcript

…the Lisa Cook case, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized that as political. Can you say why you attended and what you would say in…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 23:33In transcript

…don’t frame these questions at all or see them in terms of political outcomes. I think when you get to another part of Washington, everything…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, July 30, 2025 · Jul 30, 2025 · 1:29:40In transcript

…balance of risks, and all the things we talk about, and not political factors. And so governments all over the advanced-economy world have chosen to…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during his Speech? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

Open the appearance

What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Aug 24, 2025PoliticalKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Political”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Political” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 24, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Political” next time?
27%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Political’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/political (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=political · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP