Will Jerome Powell say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Tariff” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (57%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Tariff
- Probability
- 35% · n=7
- Settled
- 4/7 (57%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…ending in March. This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have…
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
…year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of…
…up, on balance, over the course of this year on news about tariffs, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Beyond the next year…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Tariff” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (57%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Tariff” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP