Will Jerome Powell say “Administration”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Administration” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 2, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Administration
- Probability
- 47% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…and neither has anyone else here. But these legal actions by the Administration are unprecedented in our 113year history, and there are ongoing threats of…
…the wake of the—in the wake of the Court decision. But the Administration said they’re going to move the—they’re going to get that rate right…
…as you probably know, we don’t comment on the dollar. Really, the Administration, and especially the Treasury Department, has the job of oversight over the…
…is just a big policy change that actually began in the last Administration and has been accelerated now. So a big part of the whole…
I’m not going to comment on the Administration’s proposal. I do think—as I’ve said, I think that we—you know, we’re, we’re getting the data that…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | Administration |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Administration | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Administration | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Administration”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Administration” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 2, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Administration” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Administration’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/administration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=administration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP