Will Jerome Powell say “Chair”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Chair” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Chair
- Probability
- 54% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…decisions on a meeting-bymeeting basis. This is my last press conference as Chair, and I will close with a few thoughts. First, I want to…
…my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as Chair, I would serve as Chair pro tem until he is confirmed. That…
Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal. Chair Powell, you’ve generally avoided engaging with political controversies directly, and the video statement on January 11 was a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Again, I’m focused on—I’m focused on my remaining time as Chair. I haven’t got anything new on that to tell you.
Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal. Chair Powell, are you uncomfortable with how market pricing has assumed a rate cut is a foregone conclusion at…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Chair”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Chair” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Chair” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Chair’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/chair (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=chair · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP