# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks by 2025-07-22 (settled) · 25 words · K k:KXBILATERALMENTION-25JUL22 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:30:19Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-07-22 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBILATERALMENTION-25JUL22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the Next Bilateral Meeting with a Foreign Leader in the Oval Office, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	21	18	0.86	YYYnYYnYYY	0.71	hist	yes
China	china	23	20	0.87	YYYYYYYnYY	0.69	hist	yes
Biden	biden	36	28	0.78	YnnnYYYYYY	0.68	hist	yes
Trade	trade	5	4	0.8	nYYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Russia	russia	21	14	0.67	YYnnnYnnYY	0.54	hist	no
Energy	energy	7	5	0.71	nYnYYYY	0.52	hist	no
Chip	chip	6	4	0.67	YnYYnY	0.51	hist	no
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	12	8	0.67	YYYnnYnnYY	0.49	hist	no
Border	border	17	11	0.65	nYYYYYnnnn	0.46	hist	yes
Obama	obama	7	4	0.57	YYnnnYY	0.42	hist	yes
Boat / Ship	boat|ship	0	0			0.4	hist	no
Autopen	autopen	7	4	0.57	YnYnYnY	0.37	hist	yes
Defense	defense	7	2	0.29	nYnnnYn	0.37	hist	no
Hoax	hoax	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.35	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	39	10	0.26	nnnnnnnnnY	0.35	hist	no
Taiwan	taiwan	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.34	hist	no
Powell	powell	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
Investment	investment	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.32	hist	yes
Reciprocal	reciprocal	7	3	0.43	YYYnnnn	0.3	hist	no
Gaza	gaza	12	3	0.25	nYnnYnnnnn	0.27	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	10	1	0.1	nnnnnnnnnY	0.27	hist	no
Security	security	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	0.26	hist	no
Drone	drone	8	1	0.12	Ynnnnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Electric	electric	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Military	military	0	0			0.36	prior	yes