Scott Bessent: Keynote, May 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during the Reagan National Economic Forum?
Markets
26 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 76%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump Account | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Warsh | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Main Street | Yes | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | Yes | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Cut | Yes | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Semiconductor / Chip | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 38%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Economic Fury | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deregulation | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26MAY29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP