Will Scott Bessent say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “China / Chinese” at 11 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (79%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 65% · n=14
- Settled
- 11/14 (79%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…US is the AI leader in the world; we're an AI superpower. China is second, they are trailing substantially. We want to make sure that…
…on sanctions. Iran used to be the largest state sponsor of terrorism. China was purchasing more than 90% of their oil, which was about 8%…
…whom, but I think that over time we will see that the Chinese tariffs are unsustainable for China. I've seen some very large numbers over…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 23, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 24, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 26, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 29, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 28, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “China / Chinese” at 11 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (79%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP