Will Scott Bessent say “National Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “National Security” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
National Security
- Probability
- 62% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…into an election. It would be unstatesmanlike sanctions that probably the worst national security adviser in the history of the country, Jake Sullivan, in an…
…important function of this that does not get talked about enough is national security. President Trump, his overriding, the concern and belief is that economic…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 22, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 21, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 8, 2025 | National Security | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 4, 2025 | National Security | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “National Security” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “National Security” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP