Will Scott Bessent say “Democrat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Democrat” at 6 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (67%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 6/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Democrat
- Probability
- 52% · n=9
- Settled
- 6/9 (67%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the auto deductibility on loans for American cars. And to remind everyone, Democrats -- every Democrat voted against those programs. We've had sustained and resilient…
…But what the American people must not forget is that every single Democrat in Congress voted against these tax refunds. The media has largely omitted…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Democrat |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 29, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 28, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Democrat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Democrat” at 6 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (67%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Democrat” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP