Will Scott Bessent say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Hormuz” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 7, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Hormuz
- Probability
- 40% · n=10
- Settled
- 5/10 (50%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a nuclear weapon. And the Strait of Hormuz, back to your question on energy, has to free transit. Navigation of…
Any updates on the insurance program, the US reinsurance program for ships and tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz? Any update on that, sir?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Hormuz |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 29, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 28, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Hormuz”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Hormuz” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 7, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Hormuz” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP