Will Scott Bessent say “Ceasefire”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 28, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

38%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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Scott Bessent

Ceasefire

Probability
38% · n=3
Settled
1/3 (33%)
Last 3 transcripts
said in 1 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

The PressreporterSecretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Briefs Members of the Media, May 28, 2026 · May 28, 2026 · 4:34In transcript

…first, is there a deal on the table for a 60 day ceasefire to continue that? And then second, how fast could inflation then recede…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Scott BessentspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Scott Bessent, and Kelly Loeffler Brief Members of the Media · Apr 15, 2026 · 15:10In transcript

…thinks we're nearing the end. The US kept their side on the ceasefire. We've stopped firing. The Straits of Vermouth have not been completely reopened,…

What will Scott Bessent say during Meet the Press? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during RNC Midterm Convention? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Faith & Freedom Coalition's Conference? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC: Squawk Box? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during his Committee on Ways & Means hearing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Treasury Budget Hearing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Reagan National Economic Forum? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Scott Bessent say during the White House Press Briefing? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Aug 24, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo
May 29, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes
May 28, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Scott Bessent say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 28, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 29, 2026.
What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Ceasefire” next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP