Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 22, 2026
On its Jul 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Tesla said 25 of the 43 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 42 of 43 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
43 words · 25 settled yes · our count agreed on 42 of 43- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 57 | 57 | ✓ | 97%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:46, Optimus | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 26 | 30 | ✓ | 96%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:46, Robotaxi | – |
| Car 10+ times | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:58, Car 10+ times | – |
| Cybercab | Yes | 17 | 20 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 21:09, Cybercab | – |
| Growth 5+ times | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:32, Growth 5+ times | – |
| Robot | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:52, Robot | – |
| Energy | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:54, Energy | – |
| Semi | Yes | 10 | 13 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:51, Semi | – |
| Solar | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 81%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:10, Solar | – |
| Factory | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 16:34, Factory | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 7 | 10 | ✓ | 93%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:18, Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 46%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:18, SpaceX | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:18, SpaceX / xAI | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 62%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 9:45, Terafab | – |
| America | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 16:01, America | – |
| Software | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 26:05, Software | – |
| Subscription | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:18, Subscription | – |
| Grok 3+ times | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 13:19, Grok (3+ times) | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 56%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 14:45, Supercharger / Super Charger | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 92%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:03, Tariff | – |
| Texas | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:17, Texas | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 19:43, Competition | – |
| Affordable | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 24:40, Affordable | – |
| Megapack 3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 52%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:55, Megapack 3 | – |
| Safety Monitor | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 24:55, Safety Monitor | – |
| Quarter 10+ times | No | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 61%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:51, Quarter 10+ times | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 51%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:36, Cybertruck | – |
| Income 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 10%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 21:34, Income 10+ times | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 92%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Europe / European | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Powerwall | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Waymo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Berlin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Roadster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Intel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Trillion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Emission | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Merge / Merger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Miami | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Six-Seater / Six-Seat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Fiscal 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 3%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
11 matches for “Robot”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…one of the hardest things to solve, to make an autonomous humanoid robot that can do tasks that if you simply ask it to do…
…in the field and not break down. Otherwise, you've got a 70-kg robot that just flopped over and you've got to carry it out like…
…scale manufacturing that we've ever made at Tesla, because everything on the robot is new. The difficulty of scaling the production ramp is proportionate to…
…flat and long because of the newness of the parts in the robot. You've probably seen lots of impressive demonstrations of robots on the internet,…
…The second flywheel is when we have a large number of Optimus robots practicing their tasks in what we call the Optimus Academy. The data…
Where the listed words were said
…we also have started production. Well, we will soon start production with Optimus. We have started production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon…
…infrastructure and manufacturing capacity ever in history. It's a big deal. With Robotaxi, our goals are very ambitious for Robotaxi, but we do need to…
…We achieved record Q2 deliveries. Model Y, I think it's the best-selling car of any kind in the world and is setting records across the…
…including pre-production ramp costs for new products like the Tesla Semi, Optimus, Cybercab, and other AI initiatives, as well as the appreciation for an additional…
…vehicles across the globe. We achieved record Q2 deliveries globally with sequential growth across the Americas, APAC and EMEA of 60%, 27% and 12% respectively.…
…13, 14, and now V15 software that now works on Optimus as well. Hence, I'm very confident that Optimus will be an extremely capable robot.
The energy business is also growing incredibly fast and, I think will be crucial for the scale-up of artificial intelligence data centers. We're investing a…
…to drive trucks, which are crucial for transport throughout America. An autonomous Semi is actually going to be very important to address the shortage of…
…this is going all the way from silicon refinement to producing the solar cell, and then deployment of solar. There's going to be tremendous need…
…since 2023. We are therefore focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. Production growth will be limited by our…
…about almost any of those. If we injure even one person, it'll be worldwide headline news, and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities.
…what to do. It's got to have a generalized touch screen and computer use capability. That's looking promising and this is in partnership with SpaceX.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-07-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-07-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP