Will Tesla say “China”?
Tesla said “China” 2 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 10, 28, 2, 3, 10, 3, 0, 2 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “China” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (83%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 85% (n=6, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 82¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
China
- Probability
- 85% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last calls
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…are working very diligently to try and get broader FSD approval in China. It is hard but for certain cars, we have been able to…
We are actively working with the regulators in China because I do not know if you saw this, but we have released our safety report…
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…how the regulators go about it. Additionally, we've also received approvals in China. The broader approval is still not there, but we're working with the…
…have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we're doing our…
Counts: company speakers + operator
10 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 10 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…that by far, the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually quite good at AI…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | China |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | China | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | China | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | China | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | China | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 28 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “China” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “China” 2 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 10, 28, 2, 3, 10, 3, 0, 2 times.
- How often does Tesla say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “China” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (83%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “China” next time?
- 85%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP