Will Tesla say “Semi”?
Tesla said “Semi” 3 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 5, 0, 1, 5, 2, 3, 10, 3 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Semi” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 90% (n=3, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 71¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Semi
- Probability
- 90% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…Europe and many other countries. We also began production of the Tesla Semi Truck in Q3. And did the new Roadster demo, which was, I…
…pre-production ramp costs for new products like the Optimus, Megapack 3, and Semi Truck. This trend of growing OpEx would continue till we commercialize these…
Counts: company speakers + operator
10 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…soon start production with Optimus. We have started production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon start production with Megapack 3. We've started production…
…R&D-related activities, including pre-production ramp costs for new products like the Tesla Semi, Optimus, Cybercab, and other AI initiatives, as well as the appreciation for…
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…in. The supervised Full Self-Driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of Cybercab, and we'll begin production of our Tesla Semi soon.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How many times did Tesla say “Semi” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “Semi” 3 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 7 of its last 8 calls: 5, 0, 1, 5, 2, 3, 10, 3 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Semi”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Semi” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Semi” next time?
- 90%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Semi’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/semi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=semi · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP