Will Tesla say “Megapack 3”?
Tesla said “Megapack 3” 1 time on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 5 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Megapack 3” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 70% (n=2, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 80¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Megapack 3
- Probability
- 70% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…chip development, and pre-production ramp costs for new products like the Optimus, Megapack 3, and Semi Truck. This trend of growing OpEx would continue till…
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon start production with Megapack 3. We've started production with the lithium refinery, the cathode refinery. We're…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…Demand for our Megapack is very strong. We're excited to begin production of Megapack 3 later this year in our new world-class factory outside Houston.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Megapack 3 |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Megapack 3 | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “Megapack 3” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “Megapack 3” 1 time on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 5 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Megapack 3”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Megapack 3” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Megapack 3” next time?
- 70%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Megapack 3’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/megapack-3 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=megapack%203 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP