Will Tesla say “Tariff”?
Tesla said “Tariff” 2 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 2, 26, 10, 4, 3, 7, 2, 2 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Tariff” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 23, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 91% (n=6, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 6/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 81¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Tariff
- Probability
- 91% · n=6
- Settled
- 6/6 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…from 20.4% to 33.1%. The sequential margin improvement is primarily attributed to tariff refunds recognized in the quarter and warranty true-downs, resulting from alignment with…
…facilities in this calendar year. The money that we received from the tariff refunds is being reinvested to expand production capacity in the U.S. I…
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…that we had a $230 million benefit from warranty true-downs and some tariff relief, which did not repeat in Q2. Controlling for the impact of…
…related to certain vendor cell issues for our legacy deployments. Also, the tariff benefits we recognized in Q1 of more than $200 million did not…
Counts: company speakers + operator
7 counted (7 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…one-time benefits from warranty write-downs around $230 million and some relief on tariffs. We have not realized any benefit from the recent Supreme Court ruling…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How many times did Tesla say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “Tariff” 2 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 2, 26, 10, 4, 3, 7, 2, 2 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Tariff” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 23, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Tariff” next time?
- 91%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP