Will Tesla say “Gigafactory”?
Tesla did not say “Gigafactory” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Gigafactory” at 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (14%), most recently on Apr 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 15% (n=7, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 15¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Gigafactory
- Probability
- 15% · n=7
- Settled
- 1/7 (14%)
- Last calls
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
Yeah. So it's worth noting that the Tesla Gigafactory at Austin is three times the size of the Pentagon.
…right. And then we've got the catheter refinery in Austin next to Gigafactory. We've got to figure out what to do about the anode. This…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…that that is very significant. We launched the Cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement, and we continue…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Gigafactory |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Gigafactory |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Gigafactory | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Gigafactory | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “Gigafactory” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla did not say “Gigafactory” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Gigafactory”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Gigafactory” at 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (14%), most recently on Apr 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Gigafactory” next time?
- 15%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Gigafactory’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/gigafactory (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=gigafactory · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP