Will Tesla say “Optimus”?
Tesla said “Optimus” 43 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 38, 16, 25, 37, 31, 29, 57, 43 times. As of Oct 23, 2026, Tesla said “Optimus” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 23, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 98% (n=6, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 6/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Optimus
- Probability
- 98% · n=6
- Settled
- 6/6 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
43 counted (9 in prepared remarks, 34 in Q&A).
…concert recently. This is really going to a very good place. Regarding Optimus, we've started what I'd call early production on our high-volume line in…
…the design that are changing. A lot of people ask me about Optimus. That's why I think I've got to sort of belabor this point,…
Counts: anyone
57 counted (39 in prepared remarks, 18 in Q&A).
…we also have started production. Well, we will soon start production with Optimus. We have started production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon…
It's a very high compound growth rate. Let's see, Optimus. As you've heard me say before, I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever.…
Counts: company speakers + operator
26 counted (9 in prepared remarks, 17 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…in the future. Of course, a very significant increase. Well, actually releasing Optimus, but increasing our internal production for testing, and then probably being able…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Optimus |  Polymarket | Yes | 43 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Optimus |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Optimus | Polymarket | Yes | 57 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Optimus | Kalshi | Yes | 26 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Optimus | Kalshi | Yes | 30 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Optimus | Polymarket | Yes | 37 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Optimus | Kalshi | Yes | 37 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Optimus | Kalshi | Yes | 23 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “Optimus” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “Optimus” 43 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 38, 16, 25, 37, 31, 29, 57, 43 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Optimus”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Tesla said “Optimus” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 23, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Optimus” next time?
- 98%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Optimus’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/optimus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=optimus · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP