Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 22, 2026
On its Jul 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Tesla said 25 of the 43 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 42 of 43 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
43 words · 25 settled yes · our count agreed on 42 of 43- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 57 | 57 | ✓ | 97%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:46, Optimus | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 26 | 30 | ✓ | 96%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:46, Robotaxi | – |
| Car 10+ times | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:58, Car 10+ times | – |
| Cybercab | Yes | 17 | 20 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 21:09, Cybercab | – |
| Growth 5+ times | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:32, Growth 5+ times | – |
| Robot | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:52, Robot | – |
| Energy | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:54, Energy | – |
| Semi | Yes | 10 | 13 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:51, Semi | – |
| Solar | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 81%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:10, Solar | – |
| Factory | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 16:34, Factory | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 7 | 10 | ✓ | 93%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:18, Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 46%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:18, SpaceX | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:18, SpaceX / xAI | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 62%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 9:45, Terafab | – |
| America | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 16:01, America | – |
| Software | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 26:05, Software | – |
| Subscription | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:18, Subscription | – |
| Grok 3+ times | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 13:19, Grok (3+ times) | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 56%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 14:45, Supercharger / Super Charger | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 92%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:03, Tariff | – |
| Texas | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 5:17, Texas | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 19:43, Competition | – |
| Affordable | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 24:40, Affordable | – |
| Megapack 3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 52%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:55, Megapack 3 | – |
| Safety Monitor | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 24:55, Safety Monitor | – |
| Quarter 10+ times | No | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 61%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:51, Quarter 10+ times | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 51%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:36, Cybertruck | – |
| Income 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 10%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 21:34, Income 10+ times | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 92%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Europe / European | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Powerwall | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Waymo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Berlin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Roadster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Intel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Trillion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Emission | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Merge / Merger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Miami | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Six-Seater / Six-Seat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Fiscal 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 3%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
1 match for “Megapack 3”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon start production with Megapack 3. We've started production with the lithium refinery, the cathode refinery. We're…
Where the listed words were said
It's a very high compound growth rate. Let's see, Optimus. As you've heard me say before, I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever.…
…infrastructure and manufacturing capacity ever in history. It's a big deal. With Robotaxi, our goals are very ambitious for Robotaxi, but we do need to…
…We achieved record Q2 deliveries. Model Y, I think it's the best-selling car of any kind in the world and is setting records across the…
…including pre-production ramp costs for new products like the Tesla Semi, Optimus, Cybercab, and other AI initiatives, as well as the appreciation for an additional…
…vehicles across the globe. We achieved record Q2 deliveries globally with sequential growth across the Americas, APAC and EMEA of 60%, 27% and 12% respectively.…
…achieved this. There are many challenges in the electromechanical design of the robot to achieve sufficient dexterity, also to be very reliable and have long…
The energy business is also growing incredibly fast and, I think will be crucial for the scale-up of artificial intelligence data centers. We're investing a…
…to drive trucks, which are crucial for transport throughout America. An autonomous Semi is actually going to be very important to address the shortage of…
…expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity, and AI compute infrastructure, in addition to all the other…
…since 2023. We are therefore focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. Production growth will be limited by our…
…about almost any of those. If we injure even one person, it'll be worldwide headline news, and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities.
…what to do. It's got to have a generalized touch screen and computer use capability. That's looking promising and this is in partnership with SpaceX.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-07-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-07-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP