White House press briefing transcript, Feb 18, 2026
At the White House press briefing on Feb 18, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said 21 of the 41 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 41 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
41 words · 21 settled yes · our count agreed on 41 of 41- Kalshi: role: press secretary
Kalshi - Polymarket: role: press secretary
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President / Administration 66+ times | Yes | 100 | 141 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President / Administration 77+ times | Yes | 100 | 141 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Home / Country 15+ times | Yes | 38 | 46 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| More / Again 20+ times | Yes | 37 | 41 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace / War 3+ times | Yes | 18 | 25 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Governor | Yes | 15 | 19 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | 12 | 15 | ✓ | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 63%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear / Iran | Yes | 7 | 16 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Border / ICE 5+ times | Yes | 6 | 10 | ✓ | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 60%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 67%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 3 | 7 | ✓ | 65%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Voter ID / VoterID | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | 22%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 32%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gerrymandering | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 39%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Transgender | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Law and Order | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Bad Bunny | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Crypto | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Fake / Hoax | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 19%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
174 passages · part 2 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara (presidency.ucsb.edu); White House transcript, public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
Karoline, there's been a series of walkouts from public school students, uh, that have been sort of provoked by a number of public school administrators. What are your thoughts on this? What's the administration's thoughts on this? Will they be taking any actions on these walkouts against ICE?
Uh, look, I think obviously the president and the administration support the First Amendment rights of all American citizens. And if they're peacefully protesting, then that's their constitutional obligation and right and responsibility to do so. Of course, the administration also wants to see American school children in school, learning and educating.
And I think it does speak to the left wing bias that is unfortunately very present in our nation's public school system. And it's something that Secretary McMahon has been working very hard to root out of our public school system by ensuring that local governance and local control takes place over our nation's public schools, and that parents and educators closest to students have a greater say over curriculum and academia in our country.
Take a couple more. Go ahead.
Thank you, Karoline. The Vatican announced earlier today that they would not be joining the Board of Peace Initiatives over concerns that it could potentially compete with the United Nations over handling crisis conflicts. What's the White House's response to that?
Yeah. Look, we saw that. I think it's deeply unfortunate. I don't think that peace should be partisan or political or controversial. And of course, the administration wants all those who were invited to join the Board of Peace to join, because again, the Board of Peace is overseeing the reconstruction of a territory that has been plagued with violence, with bloodshed, with poverty for far too long.
And this president has a very bold and ambitious plan and vision to rebuild and reconstruct Gaza, which is well underway because of the Board of Peace. This is a — a legitimate organization where there are tens of — of member countries from around the world and we think that's an unfortunate decision. In the back.
Sure. I'll go to both of you. Sure.
OK.
Go ahead and then, Jake, you can go.
Karoline, can you tell me, is there an update regarding the tariff rebate checks that the White House has promised?
I don't have an update for you on timeline, but I know that it's something that the president and his economic team continue to very seriously discuss.
Thank you, Karoline. I've got two questions. First, does the president see some sort of religious or prophetic component to the unfolding developments in the Middle East?
I haven't spoken to him about that particular perspective, to be honest with you. But, of course, the president wants peace for all people of all faiths all around the world. And that's part of his — his push to create peace in the Middle East, which he has done successfully.
And my second question is, as his popularity rises around the world and especially in regions where he's invested so much effort in promoting peace and ending wars, do you think we might be watching the emergence of a global MAGA movement? Is this something that the president has — has discussed at all?
Well, I don't know, Jake, but I sure hope so. Take a couple more. Go ahead. Sure.
I wanted to ask you about Iran. As the US military builds up around Iran, is President Trump coordinating war plans with Israel so that if he does decide to strike, that Israel will be a part of those strikes?
Look, I don't have any specifics on the president's recent conversations with Israel. As you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu was just here at the White House last week or the week before. But again, with respect to Iran, there was some progress made yesterday. There are still a lot of details to discuss and we'll continue to — to see how this plays out.
You know, the United States government, of course, is — is always in close communication and correspondence with the State of Israel and that starts right at the top with the president and Prime Minister Netanyahu themselves. One more. Go ahead.
Last week, we saw the underlying affidavit for the search warrant that was executed in Fulton County and there was not any mention in that document about foreign election interference in the 2020 election. I'm wondering if DNI Gabbard has uncovered that in Georgia or in Puerto Rico, where we know her team was sent as well?
I don't have any updates for you on that today. I would refer you to the director's office herself. Sure.
Karoline, two questions, one on the — on the president's schedule today, it says he has signing time. What is he signing today? Are we expecting executive orders or actions? That's the first question. And then second, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that a US arms sale package for Taiwan is in limbo.
Um, can you just confirm this reporting slash offer any additional comment? And how concerned is the administration that if — if an arms deal with Taiwan went through, that this could disrupt the China-US trade truce?
Sure. Well, I haven't read the full Wall Street Journal report. I will just say with respect to an arms sale to Taiwan, I don't have any announcements or updates on that for you today. Uh, and to your first question about what the president will be signing, he will be signing an executive order, which you will all be hearing about later this afternoon and you will see him in one hour at the Black History Month reception. We'll see you there. Thank you.
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