Will “Peace / War” be said 3+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Peace / War” was said 3+ times at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 18, 2026.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (3+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Peace / War 3+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
The president also announced the Department of War has officially selected Cleveland, Ohio as the new home for the US Navy's Submarine Component Repair Center.…
I'd like to ask you about the Iran war and about Anthony Fauci. On the Iran war, Congressman Thomas Massie today introduced articles of impeachment…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…good friend of mine, and I think he's an amazing Secretary of War. And, um, you know, fundamentally where I -- look, there are a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…has said, as I speak on his behalf, and the investigation continues and we would refer you to the Department of War for further questions.
…of things off the bat. First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Peace / War 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 18 |
Questions
- How often is “Peace / War 3+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Peace / War” was said 3+ times at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Peace / War 3+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Peace / War 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/peace-or-war-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=peace%20%2F%20war%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP