Will Mark Carney say “Trump”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Trump” at 5 of 25 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=25, from settlement history), not a forecast.

35%from settlement history only · n=25counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no yes no no no no
Streak
not said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=trump

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Carney

Trump

Probability
35% · n=25
Settled
5/25 (20%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his remarks in Ireland? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his press conference? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Mark Carney say during his food announcement? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 26 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 24, 2026TrumpKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Sep 20, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Sep 17, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jul 29, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jul 16, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jul 8, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Jul 1, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jun 13, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jun 12, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Jun 11, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Jun 2, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jun 1, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
May 29, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
May 28, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
May 27, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
May 20, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
May 19, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Apr 23, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Apr 13, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Apr 11, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Apr 9, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 31, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 30, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 27, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 26, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Feb 18, 2026TrumpKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Mark Carney say “Trump”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Trump” at 5 of 25 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Carney says “Trump” next time?
35%, from settlement history (n=25). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP