Mark Carney: Remarks, Apr 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 26%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Lumber | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zoning / Permit / Permitting | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 14%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 14%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 14%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26APR23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP