Mark Carney: Speech, Sep 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address?
Markets
13 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic | Yes | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 49%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 42%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 46%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 40%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 34%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 30%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26SEP17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP