Mark Carney: Remarks, Apr 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his economic announcement
Markets
12 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 76%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Japan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 16%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26APR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP