Mark Carney: Press conference, Sep 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense / Defence | Yes | 64%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Arctic | Yes | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 63%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 33%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 30%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 43%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 31%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 25%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26SEP20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP